Prediction Markets Quant

PredictionMarketsPicks MCP

A hosted Model Context Protocol server that gives AI agents quant tools for Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets — expected value, Kelly sizing, Bayesian updating, probability conversion, cross-platform price gaps, live edge signals, and a 2026 NFL fantasy draft assistant.

Every signal our engines publish is graded against the market that priced it: 1,612 decided signals, +$98.40 net on a flat one-contract stake, as of Aug 18, 2026 — published per tool, including the engines that lose money. → predictionmarketspicks.com/track-record

• Endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp
• Registry name: com.predictionmarketspicks/quant (MCP registry)
• Docs / landing page: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/mcp
• 23 tools — 16 free, 5 Pro, 2 free-with-depth-caps. No key needed for the free set.

Connect

Any host that speaks Streamable HTTP (Claude Code, Claude.ai, ChatGPT, Cursor) — point it at the URL. Nothing to install:

claude mcp add --transport http predictionmarketspicks https://predictionmarketspicks.com/api/mcp/mcp

Hosts that only speak stdio — this package bridges one to the other:

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "predictionmarketspicks": {
      "command": "npx",
      "args": ["-y", "@predictionmarketspicks/mcp"]
    }
  }
}

That relays the hosted server verbatim — all 23 tools, live data, tool schemas and result payloads untouched. Set PMP_API_KEY in the server's env to unlock the Pro tools; without one you get the free tools at free depth.

npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp            # bridge to the hosted quant server (default)
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --draft    # bridge to the fantasy-draft server instead
npx @predictionmarketspicks/mcp --local    # 6 calculators, offline, no network at all

--local is a self-contained build of the six stateless calculators. It makes no network calls, so it runs in an air-gapped sandbox — but it cannot serve the live engines, the draft desk, or anything that reads a market.

Tools

Free tools need no key. Pro tools read the live PMP edge engines and require a PredictionMarketsPicks API key ($14.99/mo). A free key raises the depth caps on the list-shaped tools.

Calculators — free, stateless, also available offline via --local

Tool	What it does
calculate_ev	Expected-value edge on a contract from market price + your probability; returns edge % and a BUY / SELL / SKIP read.
kelly_size	Kelly position size (full / half / quarter / eighth) from win probability, price, and bankroll, with a risk rating.
bayes_update	Update a prior with one or more pieces of evidence; returns the posterior and the per-step chain.
convert_probability	Convert between implied probability, American odds, and decimal odds.
base_rate_gap	Compare a market price to the historical base rate for a class of events; returns the gap in points + sample quality.
combo_edge	Grade a same-game multi-leg combo: EV %, fair vs offered odds, correlation-aware joint probability, negative-correlation trap flag.

Markets — free, depth-capped

Tool	What it does
find_arbitrage	Cross-venue price gaps between Kalshi and Polymarket on the same contract. Largest gap free; whole board on Pro.
market_pulse	US macro-health composite (0–100) and regime, plus six category scores. Composite always free.

NFL + fantasy draft — free

draft_board · best_available · who_do_i_draft · compare_players · player_outlook · explain_player · sleepers_and_busts · adp_market_gaps · nfl_power_ratings · nfl_win_probability

The 2026 half-PPR board with model calls, tier breaks, ADP-vs-model gaps, per-player reasoning, and eight platform ADP presets. Single-player lookups are never capped.

Pro — live edge engines

commodity_edge · scan_mispricings · nfl_edge · nfl_prop_edge · edge_alerts

Trade tickets from the silver, gold, oil and bitcoin engines; Polymarket contracts trading away from the PMP model; NFL game and prop edges; the alerts feed.

All tool descriptions and outputs use prediction-market terminology (trader / position / contract / market analysis).

Source

This repo is the public home of the server: the manifest, the bridge, the offline calculator build, and the docs. The hosted service and its live data are operated by PredictionMarketsPicks — MIT license covers this repository, and no install is required to use the server.

npm install
npm run smoke          # offline calculator self-test, no network
npm run smoke:bridge   # bridge self-test against the hosted endpoint
npm start -- --local   # stdio server, 6 calculators

Or run the offline build with Docker:

docker build -t pmp-mcp-quant .
docker run --rm -i pmp-mcp-quant

About

Built by PredictionMarketsPicks — independent quant tools and edge analysis for Kalshi and Polymarket, published by The 7 Oracles. Educational analysis, not financial advice.

License

MIT — see LICENSE.