bitcoin risk brief

Bitcoin Risk Brief

Bitcoin Risk Brief is a free, open-source product that turns canonical daily BTC/USD data into a transparent risk score, freshness state, and scenario price ladder. It is free permanently: no paid tier, no accounts, no SLA. The owned source code, documentation, and configuration are Apache-2.0; bundled third-party BTC/USD market data is not.

First viewport captured on 2026-08-09; the values shown are a point-in-time example.

Live product: bitcoinriskbrief.minihub.app

Check readiness before using any current value:

curl --fail --silent --show-error https://bitcoinriskbrief.minihub.app/api/readiness

Response captured on 2026-08-09:

{
  "status": "ready",
  "checks": {
    "risk_data_available": true,
    "validation_available": true,
    "risk_range_ok": true,
    "validation_has_rows": true,
    "latest_matches_validation_end": true,
    "source_is_canonical": true,
    "data_fresh": true
  },
  "data": {
    "latest_date": "2026-08-08",
    "covered_end": "2026-08-08",
    "data_age_days": 1,
    "max_age_days": 2,
    "source": "coinmarketcap_csv",
    "row_count": 5871,
    "methodology_version": "crypto-scout-canonical-v1.1"
  }
}

What it does

• Computes a daily 0.0–1.0 Bitcoin risk metric from the canonical collector/btc-csv/btc_usd_daily.csv history.
• Shows the latest low, neutral, or high state alongside a two-year risk history chart.
• Displays completed-candle HLC3 model price context and a risk-level scenario ladder in 0.025 increments.
• Publishes a daily brief in English, Russian, Simplified Chinese, German, French, Spanish, and Arabic.
• Exposes read-only analytics endpoints and accepts email waitlist contacts server-side, never in browser storage; users should not submit sensitive information.

What makes it different

• Visible freshness and readiness. The UI shows the latest completed day and validation state; /api/readiness returns HTTP 503 when freshness or validation checks fail.
• Deterministic and reproducible. A versioned methodology recomputes the metric from the same canonical daily history, with validation metadata recording each import.
• Scenarios, not forecasts. The price ladder runs hypothetical prices through the same model to show where risk levels would change; it is not a prediction or trading instruction.

Current Status

Current operational status, evidence, and accepted limitations: Production Readiness.

For AI agents

Start with the repository llms.txt. This branch defines the machine-readable /api/openapi.json endpoint; deployment remains pending operator work. Use the Agent Access Pack for endpoint examples, cache semantics, and interpretation boundaries.

Agents must call /api/readiness first, bind reported values to its dates and freshness state, and preserve the analytics-not-advice framing.

Architecture

Service	Stack	Purpose
timescaledb	TimescaleDB/PostgreSQL	BTC OHLCV, risk rows, validation state, brief snapshots, waitlist leads
data-collector	Python, asyncpg, APScheduler, httpx	Daily CSV refresh, full CSV import, risk recomputation
backend	FastAPI, asyncpg	API, readiness, waitlist storage, risk and brief reads
frontend	React, Vite, ECharts, nginx	Public seven-locale interface and API proxy

flowchart LR
    Source[CoinMarketCap public download<br/>or optional API] --> CSV[Canonical BTC daily CSV]
    Schedule[Daily collector schedule] --> Collector[data-collector]
    CSV --> Collector
    Collector --> DB[(TimescaleDB)]
    DB --> API[FastAPI backend]
    API --> UI[React frontend]
    API --> Agents[AI agents and API clients]

The canonical CSV remains the durable source of truth; the collector refreshes and validates it, recomputes risk, and writes the daily snapshot consumed by the API.

Quick Start

cp .env.example .env
./scripts/manage.sh validate
./scripts/manage.sh start
./scripts/manage.sh migrate
./scripts/manage.sh backfill

Open: http://localhost:3001

Documentation

• Documentation index
• Product overview
• Risk methodology
• Architecture
• API reference
• Freshness and validation
• Agent documentation
• Operations and production evidence

Disclaimer and licence

Bitcoin Risk Brief provides analytics and research context only. It is not financial advice, investment advice, a price forecast, or a trading recommendation.

Owned source code, documentation, and configuration are licensed under Apache-2.0. Bundled third-party BTC/USD market data remains subject to source-provider terms; see NOTICE.